Patterns and production lines

If the numbers don’t look right then resist the urge to analyze crappy, incorrect data. Junk in will mean junk out. All of the questionable information coming out of China on the Coronavirus is a topical example. Nobody knows what to believe. There’s no right answer at this early fuzzy stage.

Instead, look for patterns and trends in the numbers and information trickling out. Bad numbers can still have patterns and trends. Look for directional signals and follow them. What are airlines doing about flights, cruise ship touring cancellations, government travel bans, are schools still closed, are production lines disrupted? It’s easy with hindsight, but it’s hard to get a black and white answer when it’s early and the numbers are wrong.

joshua-sortino-LqKhnDzSF-8-unsplashPhoto by Joshua Sortino on Unsplash

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