If the numbers don’t look right then resist the urge to analyze crappy, incorrect data. Junk in will mean junk out. All of the questionable information coming out of China on the Coronavirus is a topical example. Nobody knows what to believe. There’s no right answer at this early fuzzy stage.

Instead, look for patterns and trends in the numbers and information trickling out. Bad numbers can still have patterns and trends. Look for directional signals and follow them. What are airlines doing about flights, cruise ship touring cancellations, government travel bans, are schools still closed, are production lines disrupted? It’s easy with hindsight, but it’s hard to get a black and white answer when it’s early and the numbers are wrong.

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My dad is in his 70s. We live in different countries. Travel is taxing on our bodies, and at some point, getting into a pressurized flying tin can for 12 hours, and shuffling through airport security and customs isn’t appealing or sustainable anymore. As an immigrant, I can count the number of times we will see each other in the coming years. If health, schedules, babies, school holidays and careers go well then maybe we see each other for a couple of weeks every year for the next 30 years. That’s 30 trips max, and I’m being generous. That’s how immigrants think about family time and moments together. We know the visits and moments together are finite, and each one is sacred.

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I’m amazed by the talent and guts of the buskers I see on my walk home. They set up in a crowded thoroughfare, tune-up their guitar, and start belting out some music. There’s no backup band or support crew, it’s just them playing for their supper at 5pm on a Tuesday evening. A crowd forms typically, and some people take out their phones to capture a song or a moment. For every pop star who’s broken through into the big time, there must be millions of performers who will never make it off the busy pedestrian path and into a recording studio. I suppose the modern-day digital buskers are the people posting their performances onto youtube and hoping for some kind of traction. There’s so much talent out there screaming to be discovered, but so little attention and time. Maybe ignorance and audacity of hope are why some of them succeed because if they knew the odds of failure, they would never try.

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On my ferry ride home, I always get up from my seat and walk towards the exit when I hear the engines start to decelerate. This deceleration from full-throttle tells me that we have another 5 or so minutes before we dock. I like to spend the last couple of minutes near the stern of the boat when I can see the wake and take in the fresh air. I never get tired of it, the same way that the Golden Gate Bridge or looking up at Table Mountain in Cape Town never gets old to me. I like to think that I get used to my commute home on the ferry, but I never get tired of it.

Every time we dock, there’s a critical moment when the crew member throws the rope from the ferry and loops the stern line around the dock bollard. If he misses the throw, then it’ll waste time, and the ferry may have to reverse for a do-over. The commuters are antsy to get off the boat and are already crowding the gate like little penguins, so it’s a high-pressure move. I always watch this short performance to see if he can nail it on his first throw. Today the ferry was booking it and came in pretty fast with the wind behind us. We were further away from the dock than usual, so the throw was going to be interesting. The crew member was a young kid who was probably about 18 years old. He lined up the throw and nailed it perfectly. In basketball, they would complement a throw like this with ‘nothing but net.’ None of the penguins noticed, but I did. Flawless execution. He looked back and smiled at me. The ferry docked, and the dam burst as the workers filed off the boat. As I walked off the plank, I glanced at the kid, and he gave me another smile. We both nodded, and I was off.

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Some of the most successful people I’ve met had their biggest wins by riding someone else’s coattails. They didn’t invent anything or start a company, but they did have the wisdom to stick with a winning ticket.

There’s no shame in slipstreaming behind a winner. People do it with companies as well. They join a rocketship and get yanked along for the ride. The first time they do it a lot of it comes down to dumb luck. The second time they do it, it means they are smart enough to recognize their luck and humble enough to step into another winner’s slipstream. Most of the time these kinds of people are quick to reach down and help others with introductions and starter positions. They recognize the value of slipstreaming and momentum for younger up and comers. Reaching down and helping others is the crucial ingredient to paying to forward in Silicon Valley.

Side note: If hubris kicks in, then some people convince themselves that their success is all about their efforts and it had nothing to do with the mega-successful company they joined. Don’t expect introductions or help from folks like this because they don’t think that “people luck” or being in the right place at the right time means much.

I’ve also seen other super-smart “good” people join zombie companies, work their tail off and the company goes nowhere. Silicon Valley is like Vegas with slightly better odds.

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When people are scared and afraid it’s wise to listen to the court jesters and crazies. The jesters and the crazies aren’t constrained by the cultural norms and guardrails that we live with every day. The jesters and crazies speak truth to power. Modern day truth speakers are personalities on YouTube, Byte, Twitter, WeChat, TikTok and Instagram.

Listening to crazy is like plugging into a stream of consciousness with a lot of intermingled bullshit woven in, but if you look carefully, sometimes there’s a pattern. Remember how our old high fidelity stereo systems had knobs for stuff like bass, volume, balance, treble, etc. Twitter and Facebook have a knob like that for Crazy. With climate change, Coronavirus, politics, tariff wars, immigration, Brexit, technology, crypto, etc. it’s worth creating a Crazy filter setting to dip into it from time to time.

You win the game if you can live in both worlds. The everyday world is the ‘don’t panic, follow the rules, and pay your bills’ world. The other world is the batshit crazy Alice in Wonderland world. Take small bites and dips into Alice’s world , and it’ll help you with perspective and insight into the fear driven rules-based and regulated world.

p.s. “It’s dangerous to be right, when the government is wrong” – Voltaire

It was 6:30am in the morning. A group of us were floating in the water waiting for the start of a swim. A couple of guys coming back from an earlier session stopped to report on the sea conditions waiting for us down the beach. The one swimmer lifted up his arm and showed us where he’d been stung by a blue bottle. Ugh! He told us there were clumps of them in the bay up ahead and that we should swim wide to avoid them. There was a bit of mumbling and discussion until someone shouted: “let’s go”. I had other ideas. I’d been stung a couple of weeks ago and was in no mood for a repeat performance. I could still see the sting pockmarks on my left arm. Everyone kicked off and I had a moment to decide. People brushed passed me and then I turned around and started swimming around the point and back to the beach. It was strange and magical to be alone in the water that early in the morning. The sun was rising behind me and the bottom of the ocean looked like the inside of a church when the sun shines through the stained glass windows. I picked up a movement down to my right and saw baby dusky shark slowly moving through the water. It was a perfect moment, the light was streaming through the water and it was just me out there. What a gift to be out there alone and encounter something so beautiful in its natural habitat. The moment passed and I made a beeline for the beach.

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They appear all along the promenade. I call them the watchers. I initially thought they were on duty lifesavers, but over time I realized that they are trying to decide whether to paddle out for a surf.

There’s sometimes a flurry of activity when someone who’s actually been in the water, paddles in from a surf session and walks up from the beach dripping wet. A few words are exchanged with the watchers about the conditions, and then everything goes back to its resting state.

After about 30 mins of sitting on a bench drinking coffee, discussing the less than perfect conditions (it’s never perfect) – the watchers slowly drift off back home, bone dry and fully caffeinated.

I think their version of a surf is heading to the beach with their boards, getting a coffee, and hanging out with other watchers. Maybe that’s just as good as getting wet and catching a wave.

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Write and press publish it. Build something and share it. Record something and broadcast it. The trick is to start when nobody is listening or watching. There’s no pressure. You’ll improve over time and build up an audience. Feedback from someone on something you published will be like lighter fluid, especially when it helps someone or just makes them laugh.

Make things, build things, and create things. The fastest way to learn is by doing. Start today.

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Some people swim like dolphins. They glide past me in the water, hardly making a splash. Their heads are steady, taking deep strokes with slow and methodical kicking. There’s no energy wastage or thrash, everything is channeled into moving forward and maximizing velocity.

I’ve encountered thrashers. I sometimes even hear them coming. Their arms are all over the place, their bodies sway from side to side with every stroke. They are the opposite of the dolphins. I’m amazed they finish the swim without exhausting themselves.

But everyone finishes the swim, and most of them are smiling with that pumped up, endorphin rush look on their faces. I’m reminded that there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

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